(Edited to put the charts below the fold)

First up, because I was curious about the turnout: the 2008 turnout was 79.46%, while the referendum turnout was 54.04%. The electorate-by-electorate correlation is +0.806, for an r² of 0.650. That’s a middlingly strong correlation for data of this sort. As expected though there’s also a fairly strong negative correlation between turnout and voting yes: r = -0.480. Electorates with high No vote tend to have higher turnout as well.

Now for party vote correlations: as you’d expect, a high Green vote is strongly correlated with voting yes, with r = +0.788. National has the strongest negative correlation of the represented parties, at -0.280, followed by Act on -0.104. The Māori party has a negligible negative correlation as well, at -0.074 (skewed by their vote pattern), but most curious to me was United Future: a small, but noticeable positive correlation of +0.120. I don’t quite know what to make of that, but it wasn’t in line with my expectations at all. It’s not a terribly strong one, and the chart (see below) shows it may be more of an anomaly than anything else.

The combined Labour-Green-Progressive vote correlates at +0.533, while National-Act is at -0.266. Throwing United Future or the Māori Party to either side doesn’t make much difference.

Some charts showing the more striking results here:

Green Party vote vs Yes vote

I also have charts for the other parties and some others.

Finally, one non-referendum chart that I found intriguing: Green Party vote against United Future vote.

They have a positive correlation of +0.253, which isn’t strong but not at all negligible.

If anybody is interested in doing their own calculations, the SQLite database I have been using to store this is also available.  The schema should be straightforward. I’ve been plotting the charts with GNUPlot, and a couple of trivial Python scripts to transform it appropriately for that.

Below the fold is an ordered, coloured table that makes it easier to follow and draw unsubstantiated conclusions from.

The ratio doesn’t measure anything specific, it’s just interesting to see where turnout correlates with vote. The colouring above is normalised to the 0-50% range for the vote, and 0-100% for the rest.

The biographies and portfolio/ministerial roles for this term need filling out more as well, if anybody would like to volunteer to edit it (I live in hope…). Otherwise, I think I will match up those with links to their corresponding pages on They Work For You.